Success Stories

Improved purchase order forecasting & expense category volatility to create reliable forecasting regimen

About the client

A leading US healthcare provider


  • The customer was witnessing a significant variance in the Purchase order (PO) issued and total spend at the hospital level resulting in incorrect capital allocation.
  • Lack of granular forecasting of PO submissions by its hospital partners broken down by on-contract, off-contract, and expense categories (EOCs)
  • Poor understanding of PO volatility across expense categories (i.e., EOCs) for each hospital


  • Innover developed ensemble ML model (XGB + Seasonal ARIMAX) to accurately capture the Total PO trend, including weekly/monthly growth and seasonality.
  • Incorporated lagged values of the previous three weeks to account for recency effect
  • Addressed week-to-week volatility through noise component adjustment
  • Developed causal models to estimate EOC level share of expense and the week-over-week volatility index

Impact Delivered:


Improvement in forecasting accuracy


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